Most Canadians view Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to raise immigration targets as adversely affecting the cost of housing, signaling a shift in public attitudes in the typically newcomer-friendly country.
Polling by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News shows about two out of three respondents believe increasing the annual target for permanent residents to half a million by 2025 will have a negative impact on the cost of housing. Only one in five believe it will have a positive impact.
The survey suggests Canadians’ opinions are changing at a time when Trudeau’s government is being criticized for exacerbating housing shortages by boosting the number of immigrants. Concerns about inflation and the rising cost of housing have been increasing over the last year, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist and founder of Nanos Research Group.
“Although Canadians traditionally support immigration, increasing the number of new Canadians while there is stress on the housing market has dampened enthusiasm,” he said.
Five months ago, another poll showed 52% of participants said the government’s immigration push would have a positive impact on the economy. These views were likely connected to jobs and the unemployment rate, Nanos said.
“The research puts a spotlight on the housing pain point and the collision of increasing the number of new Canadians when housing is seen as being increasingly unaffordable.”
While advanced economies globally are confronting similar challenges from decreasing birth rates and aging workforces, wider support among Canadians for immigration had for years given Trudeau leeway to steadily boost permanent resident targets to stave off long-term economic decline.
Under the current plan, the government aims to welcome 465,000 permanent residents in 2023, up from a record 431,000 last year. By 2025, the annual target will reach 500,000, with foreign students, temporary workers and refugees making up another group that’s expected to be even larger.
A worsening imbalance between housing supply and demand, combined with rising cost of living and higher interest rates, has already priced out many Canadian residents, including younger generations and recent immigrants. It has also prompted calls from economists for the government to revise its immigration policy.
But the government is so far sticking with its current plan. Last week in an interview with Bloomberg News, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said he would either keep or raise the annual targets because of the diminishing number of working-age people relative to the number of retirees and the risk it poses to public service funding.
The latest Nanos survey of 1,081 people was conducted by phone and online between July 30 and Aug. 3. It’s considered accurate within 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
